Friday, October 16, 2009

Christian Poker

I wanted to write something that weighs heavy on me from time to time.
Being a Christian and playing poker. I wanted to explain my thoughts
on the subject. To my knowledge it doesn't really say anything
directly about gambling. But there are several warnings in the
scriptures. Most of the problems Christians have with gambling is
because it involves uncertain money.

For the love of money is a root of all kinds of evil. Some people,
eager for money, have wandered from the faith and pierced themselves
with many griefs. 1 Timothy 6:10.

Every leisure activity is not a sin, but all sin is not clearly listed
in the Bible. Added to that, God doesn't just want us not to sin, but
he gives us an even higher goal. The Bible encourages us to consider
our activities in this way:

"Everything is permissible for me"—but not everything is beneficial.
"Everything is permissible for me"—but I will not be mastered by
anything. 1 Corinthians 6:12

This verse appears again in 1 Corinthians 10:23, with the addition of
this idea: "Everything is permissible"—but not everything is
constructive." When an activity is not distinctly described as sin in
the Bible, we can ask ourselves these questions: "Is this activity
beneficial for me or will it become my master?? Will participation in
this activity be constructive or destructive to my Christian life and
witness??

The Bible does not explicitly say, "Thou shalt not play poker." Yet by
gaining a thorough knowledge of the Scriptures we have a trustworthy
guide for determining what pleases and displeases God.

Pleasing God isn't hard. He wants us to love him, and love others.
Playing poker can actually involve both of these. Loving God has
nothing to do with poker, tieing my shoes, eating an orange, or any
activity. So love God with your whole being. Loving others is often
hard at the table when they make a call for a one outer to come on the
river and it hits. I can honestly say many poker players are gonna be
disliked. But can you love people as Christ loved us and still give
them a hard time about their play?? I think the answer is yes, as long
as your not condemning his character. I also think God encourages
loving people through friendships. I have met and played poker with
thousands of people, and when that many people are put in your path
for a game I believe it's for a reason. God has blessed my life with
problems, and those hardships help others learn how I can glorify God
in hard times. I thank God for being able to minister through a game
and I hope I can continue. Remember being an influence to someones
eternal life can be as easy as being the small blind and talking about
your life to the big blind.

Keeping It Skinny,
FlacoJake

Wednesday, October 14, 2009

Luck in Poker

Throughout my poker career, brief as it may be, I often hear statements about the luck versus skill factor involved in poker. I also hear people's thoughts on bankroll management, and many other things, many of which I find erroneous and are backed by little statistical evidence. Many involve extremely small samples sizes, for example: "Man, I got 2 out-ed 3 times last night. Poker is all luck." "Why do I need $5000 set aside to play $1/$2? The maximum amount I can lose in a single session is only $500 tops. You're bankroll management concepts are absurd." I would like to present some statistics about the extreme ups and downs of the game. The data I use in my analysis is the hands that I played online on Full Tilt Poker during the month of September, at $.02/$.05, and October, at $.05/$.10. On the following graphs, the dark green line represents my actual winnings for that particular month. The light green represents my "All-In Expected Value". What is All-In Expected Value (or AI EV)? All-In EV is an imperfect measure of the luck factor that one experiences while playing poker. If you go all in before the flop with AK before the flop against 22, you will win about 48% of the time, and lose 52% of the time. Since you are almost even money, your All-In EV line will remain flat. If you win the hand, your winnings line will increase relative to your All-In EV line, and in that case be running better than your expectation. All-In expectation is only an imperfect measure because the times that you go all in on the flop in a blind versus blind war with T8 on a board of J,T,8 versus JT, your all in expectation is extremely negative, although this was obviously an extremely unlucky situation for you. Also, the times that you call an all in on the river with AA on a board of A, 2, 3, J, J versus your opponents JJ, your All In expectation line will sharply decrease despite JJ having 1 outed you on the river. In short, All In expectation only considers your expectation on the street when you are actually all in. With that in mind, how much can someone's winnings differ from their all in expectation? X-Axis = Dollars Won. Y-Axis = Hands Played. September: < September Winnings Image> October: By the end of the month of September, I had actually won $40.39 at $.02/$.05. But my All In Expectation was only $17.80! Essentially, luck accounted for over 400 big blinds, or 4 buy ins of 100 big blinds, of my winnings for the month of September. At hand 4,762 for the month of October, my All-In EV was -$2.01, but my actual winnings were -$62.27! And these swings are over a relatively small sample size of only 26,000 hands! (statistically significant samples are typically 50,000 - 100,000 or more hands) Greg Raymer, WSOP Main Event winner, once said that a single session of poker was 100% luck, and that a solid year of poker was 100% skill. I'm inclined to say he was right. Don't concern yourselves with the results of an individual hand, or even an individual session. Play solid poker, and over the long run your play will be rewarded. -Eric "Abacus" Detweiler